There are many terrible things about a 17-game season, mostly trying to remember what teams' final records will be (9-8, you disgust me). One nice thing? We have an actual halfway point! Well, not really but you can at least divide 18 weeks in half and everyone has played nine games or more at this point.Please don't check my math. Instead, focus on the fact we're halfway through a full, fairly normal NFL season and you can't definitely say if there's a single good team in the league. The might be great, but they lost 9-6 to the . The are rolling, but they lost to the frigging . Tampa Bay is the defending champ, and it just lost to WFT's league-worst defense.Find a good team and I'll find you a flaw. This is about to be an epic run to close out the season with a bunch of weird stuff happening and the promise of some fireworks in the playoffs. Let's get hot with the picks.Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETTV:Fox/NFL Network|Stream:fuboTV ()The Patriots are a suspiciously large road favorite here given what we've seen out of "Thursday Night Football" the last few weeks. The home team has covered four of the last five weeks on "TNF," the lone exception being the lobbing a 40-burger on the haple s Jets. Prime-time games have been friendly to home teams lately as well. I just can't ignore the obvious mismatches here. The Patriots pa s defense is rounding into shape and has been locking teams down while wrecks havoc up front and piles up sacks. The Pats are running the ball really well and cleared concu sion protocol. Maybe Dean Pees dials up pre sure to slow down the run or stacks the box? It wouldn't surprise me and it probably wouldn't surprise Josh McDaniels either. We might see an aggre sive early before the Pats lean into the run game, similar to what they did against the . I
have zero interest in betting against the Pats over the next few weeks. The Pick:Patriots 28, Falcons 3Props, Best Bets: anytime TD +210, Pats -7Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ()My initial lean on this game was the Ravens, but sometimes you see two big favorites on the road in the first two games and you get a little nervous. Our excellent CBS Sports research team -- shouts to Ben Bradley, Jon Fisher, Sean Ahearn, Ryan Satsky and the whole crew, because they crush it behind the scenes -- sold me on staying with the Ravens. With an a sist to the folks at Tru Media: the Ravens and Bears are both bad at third-down conversions on offense (29th and 28th, respectively). But the Ravens are much better on defense at stopping the same conversions, second in the NFL (32%) versus the Bears at 14th (40%). Additionally, Baltimore is an elite red-zone team on offense (70% of the time it scores a touchdown) and defense (44% allowing one), while Chicago is below average in red-zone conversions (54%). Unle s the Bears decide to change their defensive tendencies -- they rank second-lowest in the NFL in terms of blitzing -- Lamar should cook here. He has three TDs and three picks against the blitz, an 11-to-5 ratio when defenses don't send pre sure, and his yards per attempt spikes 2.6 when he has time.The Pick:Ravens 27, Bears 17Props, Best Bets: anytime TDSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () We were told the offense wouldn't change without , but you would need to be born the day Todd Downing said it for that to be the first lie of your life. Before Henry went down, 32% of 's throws were going 10+ yards down the field. That number is now at 24%. The Titans have also seen a 12% spike of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage since the Big Dog suffered his foot injury. is the best of their committee, but it's reasonable to wonder if the Titans will commit to him, even with likely down this week. I really dislike betting on the Texans, but the Titans had their lowest-scoring game since Week 1 last week with 23 points and only produced 194 yards in their Week 9 upset of the . Factor in a trip to New England the following week and this reeks of a weird Texans cover in a sleepwalk/coffin-kick game. The Pick: Titans 17, Texans 14Props, Best Bets: Texans +10.5, over receiving yards if it's le s than 65Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Fun rematch of last year's playoff game. is playing better than I expected and is on the NFL's version of the Jordan Spieth comeback. If that
pathway actually happens, somehow Kyle Porter and I will end up doing a four-part mini-series podcast. is a monster. The first three Colts "picks" of 2020 were , Taylor and . GM Chris Ballard is very good at his job. Unfortunately for the Colts, Buffalo is quite simply the best defense in football this year. It's not being talked about because didn't take an equally exponential leap in 2021 (an impo sible feat), and the Bills have some weird results on their resume.See:I think we just chalk it up to football being weird with this team. The Bills flexed back on the Jets last week and this is a bad matchup for the Colts. Buffalo has given up just two 100-yard *team* rushing games this year: one was Derrick Henry, the other was the , which was a "dare you to run" situation. They won't dare Indy to run because Sean McDermott wants Wentz throwing as much as po sible against his defense. The Pick: Bills 35, Colts 14Props, Best Bets: Bills -7, over yards 75 or lowerSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () I live in the South and know le s than nothing about Cleveland weather. But this Sunday is setting up as a miserable affair, with a bunch of chilly water falling from the sky and 15 mph winds. It's supposed to be a high of 46 degrees, but if for some reason Mother Nature gets weird, there could be sub-freezing temps and snow, which are coming Monday. Dan Campbell is tough as nails, but is not a cold-weather guy. The Lions stink at stopping the run, and is back and healthy. Plus, can operate this offense just fine if the "" can't play. The Lions will be put into pa s-heavy mode in bad weather with staring down a DPOY trophy. Random but at Caesars. Bet that if you haven't.The Pick: Browns 27, Lions 14Props, Best Bets: NopeSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () We betting on or against him? What are the Jets doing?
This is a long-suffering fanbase, and if you give them a sniff of competency, they immediately start Joe Flacco in 2021. I'm not sure there's a real-life relationship equivalent. Maybe asking your spouse to vacuum the living room before your parents come and instead said spouse sets the living room on fire? The weird thing is the Jets are only three-point dogs at home. If you look at the numbers here it's impo sible to argue for the Jets. Miami is pre suring a league-high 35% of the time and the Jets are bottom five in pre sure rate allowed. The Jets are bottom 10 in every major pa sing category defensively. was limited Wednesday, but in reading his and the coaching staff quotes he should be good to go. The only argument here for the Jets is "weird stuff happens" or "it was cold for the Florida team." How do you bet on that versus "bet against 36-year-old Joe Flacco"?The Pick: Dolphins 17, Jets 10Props, Best Bets: NopeSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Are we going to pretend isn't on
a vengeance tour right now? The irony of the pick is it gave Green Bay at least two years of peak FU-MVP Rodgers. And now we've got the Immunized Reunion Tour, except there's an interesting plot twist. Because and Rodgers each mi sed games, the Green Bay defense was forced to step up. And it's stepped up big, allowing 11.3 points per game over the last three while playing , and (the last one admittedly gimpy in the hand). being hurt is a problem, but I think it just condenses the Green Bay offense around Adams and . This is a statement slate for Rodgers -- at Vikings, vs. Rams, vs. Bears, at Ravens -- and he's fully aware. Rodgers is 15-9-1 against Minnesota in his career, and now he's very angry. The Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 21Props, Best Bets: Packers -2.5Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () The Eagles coaching staff finally started doing the right stuff over the last few weeks with the rushing attack. It's a little bewildering to see and average over 200 rush yards per game. Either the Eagles are completely locked in from a rushing perspective or they just faced. You can't really run on the Saints, and if the Eagles put everything on , it will end the same as the early season games, with Hurts scoring in garbage time. Great fantasy play every single week, but the Saints might roll here.The Pick: Saints 27, Eagles 21Props, Best Bets: Saints +2Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV: Fox|Stream:fuboTV ()Very rare event here, but I'm sacrificing myself for the betterment of football. You want/and/or/need Kyle Shanahan's cooking schemes in the playoffs. The 49ers have to take care of busine s here if they want to make the postseason. The Jags -- -- are actually solid against the run, allowing only 3.9 yards per rush on the year. I almost picked the Jags to win and cover as a reverse jinx for my 49ers futures, but I legit believe the 49ers are about to start cooking. They've been sloppy all season and something was wrong in the locker room early on this year. A fully healthy makes a ma sive difference.The Pick: 49ers 27, Jaguars 17Props, Best Bets: George Kittle anytime TDSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox |Stream:fuboTV () May not feel like it outside of the South but this is a pretty big game. is back (!!) and his first game as starter is against Ron Rivera. This
matchup is #RevengeGame jet fuel. Washington's offense put a damn licking on Tampa Bay last week with that closing drive. (Nineteen plays, 80 yards of offense and 10 minutes, 26 seconds off the clock is a soul-crushing drive.) I think Carolina's defense as a whole is better than Washington's. Carolina is second best in terms of defensive yards per play. A cynic could chalk up Cam's performance against Arizona as a fluke. But roll that cynic into Bank of America Stadium after 12:30 p.m. ET. That place is gonna be rocking. You can't pay me to bet against the Panthers here. The Pick: Panthers 24, WFT 14Props, Best Bets: Panthers -3 (I bet -2.5 earlier in the week but 3 is fine), anytime Cam TDSunday, 4:05 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ()Look, the reality of the Raiders season is they can't continue to operate solely on adrenaline and motivation at an NFL level. It worked for the first two weeks after Jon Gruden resigned and Henry Ruggs was arrested. At a certain point, it's not even adversity that takes a toll -- it's attrition. When you lose your head coach and No. 1 receiver in a span of two weeks, regardle s of circumstances, it's going to catch up to you. The Raiders soared into their Week 8 bye with wins over Denver and Philadelphia but averaged 15 points per game the last two weeks while seeing's yards per attempt plummet from 8.5 to 6.9. Las Vegas went 0-2 in those games, and it wasn't going up against stout defenses. The Bengals have cratered back to earth on defense, so there's a chance Carr and Co. rebound here, but when you play the Raiders you can just bracketand force their pa sing game to go throughand. It neutralizes what Las Vegas wants to do. And the Raiders shouldn't be able to find an answer for the Bengals receiving corps either. The Pick: Bengals 31, Raiders 24Props, Best Bets: BengalsSunday, 4:25 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () First things first -- if you hear/see/get an alert about Kyler Murray being out (the Cards are keeping it pretty tight but have let it be known the last two weeks; I think he plays but could be wrong) bet the Seahawks. I don't love backing a Ru sell Wilson who can't feel his fingers, but Seattle as a dog is ridiculous given how bad the Cardinals offense is without Murray and (3.2 yards per play and 4.9 yards per pa s attempt bad). The win over San Francisco with was ma sive, but it isn't reality. We know Ru s is playing as a home dog and the Cards *should* sit Kyler with the bye coming next week. The Pick: Seahawks 21, Cardinals 17Props, Best Bets: Seahawks +2.5Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETTV:Fox |Stream:fuboTV () Hot take: this game doesn't meet our expectations. How can it? If we don't get 2018 Chiefs-Rams, it's probably a disappointment given how the Cowboys are operating and how we know the Chiefs can work. (five) and Patrick Mahomes (three) are first and second in 400-yard games since the start of 2020. But the Dallas ground game has been its hallmark this year, with the Cowboys averaging 139.6 yards per game rushing, good for fourth in the NFL. And that ground game gives me pause when it comes to KC, but the Chiefs defense has been immensely better over the last five games. The competition has been worse, no doubt, but moving inside changed things for Kansas City. (Since Week 9, Jones has seven total pre sures, which is third in the NFL behind only and DeForest Bucker for interior DL.) is supposed to play; if he doesn't I love the Chiefs here.The Pick: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 27Props, Best Bets: TBDSunday, 8:20 p.m. ETTV:NBC|Stream:fuboTV () How are the Steelers this big of a dog in this spot? The Chargers are taking on water right now and drew a terrible matchup -- do you remember what it looked like in their little soccer stadium when Steelers fans showed up for the last matchup?!! More importantly, the Chargers are the league's worst rush defense and the Steelers would love nothing more than to give 42 carries in this game. If Harris hits 100 rushing yards here, he'll join the legendary Franco Harris as the only Steelers rookies with three or more 100-yard rushing games in a single season. The Chargers have allowed 100 yards rushing or more in eight games this season. And offensively, has regre sed. It's probably coaching, but I'm not interested in backing him against a good defense as long as Joe Lombardi is keeping the reins on.The Pick: Steelers 21, Chargers 14Props, Best Bets: Under 47, over Najee Harris carriesMonday, 8:15 p.m. ETTV:ESPN|Stream:fuboTV () These are not 's Giants, so we can't count on them to simply take out in front of the entire world. Oddly enough, these NFC teams have met each of the last five years and the Giants
have won four of them. Not quite as odd: the win by the Bucs came with a team captained by Tom Brady. Tampa is 10-3 at home with Brady, but it hasn't played there since smoking the Bears, 38-3, on Oct. 24. That's a long time to be away from home, and primetime Brady coming off back-to-back lo ses is more than a little scary. It's just a ma sive window for the Giants to backdoor (think Philly on "TNF" in Week 6) and the Buccaneers simply aren't healthy. Can't make this any kind of bet without knowing about or . A fully weaponized Brady might change my mind, but for now give me the G Men. The Pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 21Props, Best Bets: TBDThe new NFL season is here! Win or lose, you can shop jerseys, shirts, hats, and much more to support your favorite team. .
29 Апрель 2024, 10:40:26
